predictive models

2 items

RESEARCHarXiv CS.CL·19d ago

Data Scaling as Progressive Coverage of a Predictive Contribution Spectrum

This research investigates whether real-data scaling laws are governed by a progressive coverage of a latent predictive contribution spectrum, rather than solely by token-frequency. Using a suffix-automaton and a global-KL predictive contribution spectrum, the study finds a strong correlation between the spectrum's tail slope and the data-scaling exponent of GPT learners, showing that effective truncation rank scales logarithmically.

language models data scaling machine learning predictive models

RESEARCHarXiv CS.LG·14d ago

Algometrics: Forecasting Under Algorithmic Feedback

This paper introduces algometrics, a framework for time series whose evolution depends on the predictive algorithms forecasting them. It distinguishes historical risk from deployment risk, proving that deployment risk is not identifiable from passive historical data alone and that historical model rankings can invert under crowding.

forecasting feedback loops algorithmic markets predictive models